Only a very tiny percentage of all coins in PCGS, NGC or
other similar holders are likely to be graded higher by those services if broken
out and resubmitted. A larger (though still relatively small) percentage, if
broken out and resubmitted, are likely to be graded lower. This is because most
of the coins on the market which the experts consider undergraded have already
been resubmitted. Obviously, the more valuable a coin is, the more likely it is
to have been resubmitted the optimal number of times to receive its ultimate
grade.
To illustrate, let's imagine a coin which three graders out of ten would
consider MS-65. The other seven would grade it MS-64. Based on probability
statistics there is approximately a one in five chance that a random selection
of 3 graders from this mix will result in at least 2 of the 3 graders grading
the coin MS-65 thus insuring an MS-65 rating by PCGS or NGC. If the coin is
worth $50 in MS-64 and $150 in MS-65, most dealers would just sell it in the
MS-64 holder - possibly as a PQ But, if the coin is worth $300 in MS-64 and
$1,000 in MS-65, chances are the dealer will resubmit it until the grading
service finally grades it MS-65.
Needless to say, given the cost in time and fees of resubmissions, a dealer's
ability to predict how other experts would grade a particular coin is very
important to the bust-out game. Since the vast majority of coins would grade the
same and some coins would grade lower only a few dealers can consistently make
this a profitable venture. As an example, consider for a moment the above
example. If one more person out of the 10 had graded the coin MS-64, this would
have changed the odds to about one in eighteen, rendering most bust-out
scenarios unprofitable.
Note: The consumer is probably not harmed by this, because the market takes
this bust-out activity into account. Obviously, if a coin could never be broken
out of a holder once sealed, MS-65's would be considerably rarer than they are
now. The prices bid on the ANE system would be much higher as a result.
Therefore, if a buyer purchases a coin based on the prices reported today on ANE
(or any other sight-unseen bidding system), suffice it to say that he (or she)
is only paying for a "low-end" coin that has most likely achieved its ultimate
grade.