The inventory of unsold new homes in Southern California soared to its
highest level since 1990 by the end of the second quarter, according to a report
that will be released Wednesday, and construction activity has dropped
dramatically as builders adjust to the slowing market.
At the end of June, there were 16,595 new houses and condominiums for sale
from Santa Barbara County to San Diego County (excluding Imperial County), up
171 percent from the end of July 2005, according to a report that will be
released by the Real Estate Research Council at California State Polytechnic
University, Pomona.
That's the biggest supply overhang since 20,942 new homes languished on the
market at the end of 1990, said Michael Carney, the council's executive
director.
The record inventory is 32,191 new properties in the middle of 1982.
In Los Angeles County, the unsold new home inventory rocketed an annual 375
percent, to 1,975 properties at the end of June. That's the most since 2,054 new
homes were on the market at the end of 1995.
The most distress, however, is in San Diego County, where a record 6,927
properties were on the market at the end of June. Eighty-four percent are
attached units,
Southern California now accounts for 3 percent of the unsold new home
inventory in the U.S. and 14 percent in the West.
"There is no question in my mind there's a number of indicators showing a
large unexpected decrease in the demand for housing," Carney said.
It's happening in lots of other places, too, he said.
Carney's assessment came the same day the California Building Industry
Association released a report showing that construction activity took a big drop
between June and July, and is 15.9 percent under the year-ago level during the
year's first seven months.
Overall housing starts last month, as measured by the number of building
permits issued, fell 43 percent from June.
Nevertheless, the Sacramento-based association said the industry is still on
track to bring 180,000 units to market this year.
Alan Nevin, the association's chief economist, is not alarmed by the current
inventory levels even though that's how the years-long residential real estate
slump started in the early 1990s.
"The numbers are high compared to where they were a couple of years ago but
they really aren't bad at all," he said.
The average subdivision in the state has fewer than 11 homes that have not
sold and Nevin thinks that inventory can be cleared by the end of the third
quarter.
"Then they will only start what they have pre-sold," he said.
Last month, builders pulled permits for 8,112 single-family homes statewide,
down 35.1 percent from the previous month and 22.6 percent from a year ago.
Multifamily housing starts - condos and apartments - totaled 3,009, down 56.9
percent from the previous month but up an annual 4.5 percent.
In Los Angeles County, builders pulled 767 permits for detached houses in
July, down 32 percent from June and 10.8 percent fewer than a year ago. There
were 848 permits for multifamily projects pulled, down 44.2 percent from June
and 28.2 percent from a year ago.
Nevin expects that new-home construction in California will continue cooling
from a superheated state to more a more normal level the rest of the year.
He said builders are using aggressive marketing techniques, like offering
upgrades and price reductions, to reduce their inventory.
And Ben Bartolotto, research director at the Burbank-based Construction
Industry Research Board, which supplies the permit numbers, said the slowing
activity is just part of a normal market cycle.
The association, which earlier predicted that builders would pull permits for
about 155,000 single-family homes this year, now expects the total to be about
138,000. That would be the fewest since 123,600 permits were issued in 2002,
Bartolotto said.
"Builders have been cautious all through this. Since the early 1990s, they
have always undershot the (construction) forecast that most people had for the
year coming up. I don't see this as an issue."